Fire Season Ramps Up (May 11).

By CYNDY COLE
Sun Staff Reporter
Sunday, May 10, 2009

Flagstaff is again near the start of fire season and the end of controlled burns, firefighters here say. Fire danger was moved from moderate to high across the Coconino National Forest last week. Meteorologists who predict fire weather across the Southwest say they expect an average season, as the Southwest emerges from a weak La Nina weather pattern, but that this could always change with the weather.

"We're right in the middle of fire behavior changing. We're right on the cusp of what we want" for prescribed burns, said Buck Wickham, division chief of the Peaks Ranger District of the Coconino National Forest.

THE FIRE FORECAST

The U.S. Drought Monitor ranked much of northern Arizona "abnormally dry" last week. That is at the mild end of the drought spectrum, but with at least six more weeks before the usual start of the summer monsoon. And the Southwest Coordination Center excluded northern Arizona from its more severe fire forecast covering much of the rest of the state. Another important consideration, said fire weather meteorologist Rich Naden, is whether there are ignition sources to light wildfires, and that's a less predictable factor. "You need ignitions. You can have what we call 'potential' all over the map," but not have wildfires, he said.

Lightning and human-caused fires have dropped off in recent years on the Coconino National Forest. The forest has had an average of 353 fires annually over the last five years between human-caused fires and wildfires sparked in other ways. In all, that's about 100 fewer fire starts than the five years before.

Part of that is human behavior. There have been 25 percent fewer human-caused fires recorded in the past five years when compared to 1999 to 2003. But the number of lightning fires ignited yearly on the Coconino also varies widely, from more than 100 to nearly 500 in a year. Lightning-ignited fires have also declined in recent years, but that might not remain the case.

Some weather projections show an early monsoon in northern Arizona, and the potential for a lot of lightning this year, Naden said. The Coconino is staffed up with firefighters and has access to aircraft in Prescott, Pittman Valley, and the Grand Canyon. There are no fire restrictions on the horizon. "We haven't looked at that too strongly, because we're really green," said Russ Copp, deputy fire staff officer on the Coconino.

The 350-acre Bear Fire in steep terrain north of Sedona has been the largest to date. Some of the recent prescribed burns around Flagstaff have occured even as firefighters have fought fires in other areas nearby. That's because firefighters work within a certain prescription for forest moisture, wind, and weather in the specific location of the prescribed burn to lift smoke from the area, Wickham said. If it's too wet, the fire sends up more smoke than usual but doesn't consume a lot of the duff and branches on the forest floor that fire crews are targeting. Too dry, and fire crews are banned from burning out of risk of sparking a wildfire.

Following years of thinning southwest of Flagstaff, the community is likely protected from a wildfire entering from Oak Creek Canyon in all but the worst weather, said the district ranger. "Under most conditions, we're in a much better situation than we used to be," said Mike Elson, ranger for the Peaks and Mormon Lake ranger districts. Kachina Village and Mountainaire, however, are deemed more likely to be at risk in a large wildfire, according to maps showing past thinning and future fire threats.

NO SPECIAL WATER RESTRICTIONS PLANNED

Flagstaff is about two-thirds behind average on precipitation for the calendar year to date, after a dry March. Snowpack this year is less than last, but Upper Lake Mary filled three-quarters of the way and is still more than 70 percent full, said Brad Hill, water resources manager for the city of Flagstaff. "We have enough water in the lake to go ahead and use the lake for the remainder of this calendar year," he said, and still have about one-third left over.

Other than year-round watering restrictions, no additional water restrictions are planned. In all, this means less pumping of water from the aquifer 2,500 feet underground, and less cost to the utilities department. The monsoon weather pattern is expected to begin between July 4 and 12 this year, Naden said.

Read the original story here.